MG-42 » Di 18. Sep 2012, 05:45 hat geschrieben:
Schön das du die Republican Talking points kennst und aufsagen kannst.
Rasmussen ist umstritten:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the ... mmon-poll/
State by state overview.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
Ohio 48.5 44.3 Obama +4.2
Virginia 48.3 46.8 Obama +1.5
Florida 47.8 46.5 Obama +1.3
Wisconsin 48.2 46.8 Obama +1.4
Iowa 45.0 44.8 Obama +0.2
Colorado 48.3 45.3 Obama +3.0
New Hampshire 47.3 43.3 Obama +4.0
Michigan 48.0 41.7 Obama +6.3
Pennsylvania 48.7 40.3 Obama +8.4
Missouri 43.0 50.3 Romney +7.3
Nevada 49.0 45.7 Obama +3.3
North Carolina 45.0 49.8 Romney +4.8
Partisanen die nur für eine Seite jubeln sind das Problem des Internets, versuch doch bitte nicht Teil des Problems zu sein.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... e_map.html
Und so sieht es aus. Romney muss fast alle Tossups gewinnen wenn er es noch reissen will.
Rasmussen hat wohl aufgrund ihrer Serie von schlechten vorhersagen ihren Deal mit USAtoday verloren.
USA Today's Divorce From Gallup Is Good News for Everyone But Gallup
If USA Today pulled the plug because it was dissatisfied with Gallup's polling, then the paper made a wise move. E
ven though Obama comfortably won reelection by 4 points, Gallup’s final poll showed Romney ahead by 1 point and consistently found Romney winning by a wider margin—as much as 7 points—over the final few weeks of the campaign. The final USA Today/Gallup swing state poll was off by a similar margin, finding a tied race even though Obama easily won 11 of Gallup’s 12 swing states by a combined 4 points. It is worth noting that no other live interview survey contacting cell phones found Romney ahead heading into Election Day.
And Gallup’s 2012 failures were not anomalous. Heading into the 2010 midterms, Gallup showed Republicans leading the generic congressional ballot by a staggering 15-point margin, far greater than their eventual 6-point victory. In 2008, Gallup found Obama winning by 11 points, again missing Obama’s 7-point victory by 4 points. In comparison, Pew Research survey struck within one percentage point of the final outcome in the same three elections.
It's no surprise, then, that some have questioned Gallup’s practices and methodology. Last year, the Huffington Post’s Mark Blumenthal found that Gallup was not properly weighting its sample of American adults to the census' targets for race, consequently understating the strength of Democratic candidates. Months later, Gallup introduced a serious of methodological changes that appeared intended to correct for the flaws identified by Blumenthal, yet Gallup's surveys continued to underestimate the non-white share of likely voters, and consequently underestimated support for the president. Part of the problem was Gallup’s likely-voter screen, which excluded too many new or transient voters by asking questions like, "Do you know where people in your neighborhood vote?" Yet Gallup also found Obama doing worse among registered voters than other surveys, suggesting that their issues ran deeper than their likely-voter screen. And, perhaps most seriously, the Justice Department has sued Gallup, accusing the pollster of bilking federal agencies by inflating prices for contracts.
http://www.tnr.com/blog/electionate/112 ... n-watchers
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