Weiter geht’s
Ein sehr entscheidender Faktor, und von uns argwöhnisch beobachtet: Die Bevölkerungsentwicklung.
Lt UN-Schätzung wird sich die afrikanische Bevölkerung bis 2050 mehr als verdoppeln. In Asien und Lateinamerika nimmt sie auch noch zu, aber weit weniger.
http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Publications ... P_2015.pdf (Seite 7)
Dass das ein Problem darstellt, braucht nicht näher erläutert zu werden.
Dabei verteilt sich dieser Trend sehr unterschiedlich auf die verschiedenen Regionen Afrikas. Während in Nord- und Südafrika die Geburtenraten sehr deutlich und in Ostafrika auch erheblich abgenommen haben, blieben sie in Zentral- und Westafrika in den letzten Jahrzehnten fast konstant. Tiefere Ursachen nach nachstehender, sehr lesenswerten, Analyse:
What are the implications of these differences? We should not expect West and Central Africa to follow the same demographic trajectory of other regions. Demographers are very clear that fertility rates will not decline to the levels seen in other regions unless preferences about family size change.
[…]
Women who are more empowered, as measured by their autonomy in decision-making, prefer smaller families. Education and outreach towards men cannot be neglected either. In most countries in these regions, men have a higher ideal number of children than women.
[…]
This underscores the value of programs to improve educational attainment and quality. Increased education among women is well-established to lower fertility rates, and it is therefore no surprise that education affects fertility preferences as well.
http://www.newsecuritybeat.org/2015/05/ ... mily-size/
Somit kommt Projekten zur Stärkung von Bildung und Empowerment von Frauen eine überragende Bedeutung zu und genau das ist ein Bereich, wo Entwicklungshilfe einen großen Hebel besitzt. Wer sinnvoll Geld spenden will, liegt bei solchen Programmen vermutlich nicht völlig verkehrt. Fast alle größeren Entwicklungsorganisationen machen sowas.
Um die Zielgruppe zu erreichen, ist Kreativität gefragt:
NURHI reaches out to women and men through entertaining and educational weekly radio programs.
[…]
Because of the wide diversity among Nigerian cities, separate radio programs were developed for each city – Abuja FCT, Benin, Ibadan, Ilorin and Kaduna – encompassing the local language, context and entertainment preferences. In Abuja FCT, for example, the drama is fast paced with multicultural characters, reflecting Abuja FCT’s true slum residents who hail from all corners of the country. Ilorin’s program is based on Yoruba culture only, heavily incorporating the local love of music. In the northern city of Kaduna, the program uses the term ‘child birth spacing’ rather than ‘family planning’ to reflect cultural, political and religious sensitivities surrounding birth and child preferences. Between 2012 and 2013, a total of 308 shows were broadcast in the 5 cities.
[...]
Results to Date
Mid-term survey results indicate that the NURHI program overall is heading in the right direction. The targeted urban areas saw contraceptive prevalence rates increase between 2.3 and 15.5 percentage points among women in union from baseline to mid-term – the highest increase was seen in Kaduna from 19.6 percent to 35.1 percent. There was also an increase in intention to use family planning by 7 to 10 percentage points in each city. Results indicate that more than 83 percent of women have been exposed to at least one NURHI activity on the television, radio, in their communities or in their clinics
http://www.nurhitoolkit.org/success-sto ... ewn8JfuNsE
"Child birth spacing"
Clearly, still a long way to go.
History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes (Twain). Unfortunately, we can't predict the rhyme.
